A realistic United States and Iran peace deal will never look like a grand Versailles treaty, but rather a dirty transactional compromise built around frozen assets and uranium caps. Washington needs to stop Iran from reaching a 90 percent enrichment threshold, while Tehran desperately needs sanctions relief to salvage a collapsing rial and prevent a nationwide uprising. Expect any functional text to revive aspects of the 2015 JCPOA framework, capping uranium stockpiles at 300 kilograms while allowing limited monitored oil exports under a temporary sanctions waiver.
The hardest sticking points will be the regional proxy network and sunset clauses, which hardliners in both capitals will weaponize against the negotiators. Iran will refuse to abandon Hezbollah or the Houthis outright, meaning any final accord will likely sweep regional behavior under the rug in exchange for strict nuclear verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency. If signed, expect it to happen quietly in Geneva or Oman, far away from grand press conferences.
The real question is whether Congress and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps would let a signed deal survive its first twelve months.